Incidence of dengue in Puebla, Mexico: epidemiological characterization, trends, and projections 2020–2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.62954/vzbcjt38Keywords:
Dengue, Aedes aegypti, Outbreak, Serotyping, EpidemiologyAbstract
Dengue virus is the most epidemiologically relevant arbovirus worldwide. An ecological study was conducted using official data from the epidemiological surveillance system of the Ministry of Health. The objective of this study was to analyze the distribution and trends of confirmed dengue cases in the municipalities with the highest incidence in the state of Puebla, as well as at the state and national levels during that period. The municipalities with the highest incidence rates were analyzed and future trends were projected using least squares. The results showed an increase of more than 130% at the national level, reaching historical records between 2023 and 2024. Municipalities such as Santa Catarina Tlaltempan, Atzala and Coxcatlán showed abrupt increases linked to the possible circulation of serotype DENV-3. During the period of 2024, the introduction of viral serotype DENV-3 was recorded, which provoked an exacerbated immune response in populations previously exposed to other serotypes, intensifying the severity and frequency of cases. Projections suggest a sustained increase in several municipalities, especially Epatlán, which could maintain an upward trend towards 2026. Finally, it is concluded that phenotypic variability represents a key factor in the dynamics of dengue in Puebla and that its monitoring should be intensified to avoid future severe epidemics.
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